Fair model: Clinton trails by a clear margin

The Fair model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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