DeSart model: Trump with small lead
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.9%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.