DeSart model: Trump with small lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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