Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 49.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.8%. Compared to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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