Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between July 30 and August 7. The sample size was 812 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On August 28 Clinton obtained only 47.9% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 52.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.