New Gravis poll has Trump behind by 8 points
Gravis published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 15 to August 15, among a random sample of 1143 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the Gravis poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.