Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Reuters poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of participants would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 20 to August 24 among 1049 participants. The error margin is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Reuters poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.