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Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Electoral-cycle model

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The Electoral-cycle model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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