Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 54.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 3 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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