Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Bio-index model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 59.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 40.4%. In comparison, on August 27 Trump was still predicted to collect 41.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 5.5 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Bio-index model.