538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, and 47.8% for Trump. In comparison, on August 27, Clinton was predicted to win 52.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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