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Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Time-for-change model

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The Time-for-change model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.

The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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