Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 50.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.
The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.