Quinnipiac published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 51.0% of participants plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out from August 18 to August 24 with 1498 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. Relative to numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 2.3 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.