Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.

The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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