Susquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Susquehanna poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4, among a random sample of 772 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 44.1% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 44.9%. Relative to numbers in the Susquehanna poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.4 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.