Pennsylvania: Clinton holds clear lead in Quinnipiac poll
Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were announced. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 52.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7 among 815 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 44.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently achieves 44.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.8 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.