New Quinnipiac poll in Ohio: Trump trails by a small margin
Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7. A total of 812 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 47.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 47.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. In comparison to numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.