CBS News/YouGov poll in Ohio: Clinton with negligible lead
Results of a new poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov were published. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the candidates of both major parties have often gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19 among 997 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 46.5% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 47.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.5 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.