The Keys to the White House model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.9%. Relative to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.