Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in latest Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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