Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in latest Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.
The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.