Ohio: Narrow lead for Clinton in Monmouth poll
By Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 21, among a random sample of 402 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 47.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 47.2%. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.
