Methods widely agree on the election outcome

In today's update, Polly concludes that Clinton will achieve 53.7% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.4% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Four expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 50.8%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 53.9% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.7% of the vote.

In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is quite high with 53.1% in aggregated polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, combined polls expected a vote share of 56.0% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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