Methods widely agree on the election outcome
In today's update, Polly concludes that Clinton will achieve 53.7% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.4% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Four expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 50.8%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 53.9% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.7% of the vote.
In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is quite high with 53.1% in aggregated polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, combined polls expected a vote share of 56.0% for Democratic candidate.