Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead

The Leading indicators model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 48.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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