Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.9%. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.8 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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