Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.9%. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.8 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.