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Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

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The Jérôme & Jérôme model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton and Trump will each receive 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.

The Jérôme & Jérôme model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% and Trump 46.4% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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