Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead
The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, because they may include large biases. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.