Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, because they may include large biases. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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