Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 54.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points lower.
The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.