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Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead


The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Clinton can currently count on 54.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points lower.

The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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