Results of a new national poll administered by Gravis were circulated. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
The results show that 54.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 15 to August 15, among a random sample of 1143 participants. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. In the latest Gravis poll on July 23 Clinton obtained only 49.0%, while Trump obtained 51.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.