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New Gravis poll shows Clinton with 8 points lead

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Results of a new national poll administered by Gravis were circulated. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Gravis poll results
54

Clinton

46

Trump

The results show that 54.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from August 15 to August 15, among a random sample of 1143 participants. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. In the latest Gravis poll on July 23 Clinton obtained only 49.0%, while Trump obtained 51.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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