Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead

The Fiscal model model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.8%. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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