Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to win 56.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.