DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.