Latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 48.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.