New NBC News poll shows Clinton with 8 points lead

Results of a new national poll carried out by NBC News were spread. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from August 15 to August 21. A total of 1745 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-1.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. To compare: Only 45.7% was obtained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on August 26, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.7 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.