Results of a new national poll carried out by NBC News were spread. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC News poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 15 to August 21. A total of 1745 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-1.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. To compare: Only 45.7% was obtained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on August 26, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.7 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.