PPP (D) poll in Pennsylvania: Trump trails by a slim margin
Results of a new poll administered by PPP (D) were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31 with 1505 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 47.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 44.9%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.4 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.