Ohio: Clinton with slim lead in new NBC-WSJ-Marist poll
NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 3 and August 7. The sample size was 889 registered voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 46.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 47.2%. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.