New Bloomberg poll has Trump trailing by 6 points
By Bloomberg released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Bloomberg poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 5 to August 8 with 749 participants. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. On August 26 Clinton received only 46.8% in the Bloomberg poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.5 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.
