Latest Lockerbie model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie

The Lockerbie model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 49.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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