Bio-index model: Clinton is in the lead
The Bio-index model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 58.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 41.2%. In comparison, on August 26 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton currently runs at 53.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 4.9 percentage points lower.
The Bio-index model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Bio-index model.