538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 47.8%. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 47.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3.1 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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