538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 47.8%. In comparison, on August 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 47.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3.1 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.