Results of a new national poll carried out by Quinnipiac were published. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
This poll was conducted via phone from August 18 to August 24, among a random sample of 1498 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 44.6% for Clinton and 55.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.9%. Clinton is currently at 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 8.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 9.0 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.