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Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Keys to the White House index model


The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Clinton can currently count on 53.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.

The Keys to the White House model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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