Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. Compared to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 2 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.