Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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