The Big-issue model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.