Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
The poll was conducted from August 20 to August 24. A total of 1049 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.0 point below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.