The Primary model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.