Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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