Pennsylvania: New PPP (D) poll shows Trump behind by 4 points

PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The results show that 49.0% of respondents would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31 among 1505 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 47.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 44.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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