Pennsylvania: Significant lead for Clinton in Susquehanna poll
By Susquehanna released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Susquehanna poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 31 to August 4 with 772 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 44.1% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 44.9%. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Susquehanna poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.
