CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 17 to August 19 among 997 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 46.5% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 47.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.5 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.