New Vox.Com model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck

The Vox.Com model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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