New Time-for-change model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie

The Time-for-change model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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