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New Electoral-cycle model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck


The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. Clinton is currently at 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points worse.

The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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